The Black Swans of the Colorado Trail

Last Memorial Day, I was sitting on my porch enjoying my coffee and my copy of USA Today, when I read a most disturbing headline: Beaver Attacks and Kills Man in Belarus. “A beaver?” I marveled. “A beaver?” I had never considered beavers to be a threat to humanity. In fact, I had long considered them to be cute and docile woodland creatures, yet there were the callous details in dark callous print. This beaver had sauntered-up to an innocent fisherman, bit him in a major artery, laughed with impunity, and swam away.  “First degree murder…” I frowned, drinking my last sip. “Beavers are not to be trusted!

A year later, I am pleased to announce that outside of Virginia, Homeland Security has prevented a pandemic of beaver attacks on American soil; however, as Kim and I prepare to take our hike this summer, I have begun to consider the real dangers of the Colorado Trail. If a red-eyed, demon beaver can kill a man in Belarus, I am sure a buck-toothed monster in the Collegiate Peaks would have no problem gnawing his way through the Nylon walls of our two-man tent.

Now, I know you may not be hiking the Colorado Trail anytime soon, but you need to know that the Centennial State is not the utopic paradise John Denver has made it out to be. It is a dangerous place, where the mountains are capped in shrouds of unpredictability. Anything can happen here… Anything!

Interestingly, in 2001 an economist named Nassim Taleb addressed this very topic. No, he did not hike the Colorado Trail, but in his book Fooled by Randomness he warns his readers that they need to spend more time preparing for unpredictable events. He terms these events “Black Swans” because they are rare, impactful, and almost unimaginable, like the Great Boston Molasses Tragedy of 1919 (Ugh!).

Thus, for your benefit, I will now list the “Black Swan” events that could impact or derail our upcoming adventure.

Wildlife

                Wildlife is a major concern on this trip, but I am not concerned about the usual suspects. Yes, bears can cause trouble for hikers, but in general they spend over 200 days a year in a deep torpor (hibernation), and when they do awake, they tend to rummage through garbage cans, Toyota Corolla’s, and KFC dumpsters. In fact, only five people have ever been killed in Colorado by bears, and one of the deceased met his untimely death by spraying two grizzly bears with a hose, which I think we all would agree is a bad idea. Mountain lions, also known as “long tails” and “ghost cats,” are not a primary concern either. Only two people in Colorado have ever been felled by one of these animals, and unless Kim and I start dressing in our mule deer buckskins, the danger should be minimal.

No, I think our major concern on this trip will be the unruly ungulates that have been pugnaciously ambushing the local residents. These “Black Swans” consist of the hoofed animals we might encounter with horns, antlers, and bad attitudes. Case in point: last month, a Black Hawk woman had just left her house to walk her dog Puddles, when a large-disheveled moose pounced upon her. Of course, she had done nothing to provoke the attack. The beast simply pounded her into the ground with all the forcefulness of a Riverdance clogger. It was a truly Black Swan event!  She survived the attack, yet she suffered multiple broken bones, several stiches, and the indignity of being covered in moose drool. I don’t know if you have ever been on the receiving end of a moose attack, but it is a most unfortunate event that includes a rhythmic cycle of hoofs, antlers, grunts… hoofs, antlers, grunts. I would like to say this particular moose attack was as isolated as the mad beaver in Belarus, but it is not; there have been many ungulate attacks in Colorado over the years. Just last fall, an Estes Park woman was trampled by an elk outside her apartment, and five years ago, a Florissant woman was gored by a mule deer. I would like to believe that Kim and I won’t meet a similar fate on the trail, but I can certainly imagine one of us opening our tent fly, only to meet a menagerie of hooves, antlers, and grunts…

                My other concern is that we may be intruding upon some of Colorado’s most endangered species (i.e. ptarmigans, lynx, cutthroat trout, bigfoot, and pika). The pika, which looks like a hamster and squeaks like a squeeze toy, is perhaps my favorite animal on the list. Unfortunately, Global Warming is quickly pushing these cute little buggers towards extinction, and I am worried that in their desperation, they may decide to take some of us backpackers out with them. I know such retribution may seem unlikely, but the 1964, horror movie Night of the Lepus seems to predict that such an attack may be imminent.

Escapees

 I have been asked more than once if I “pack-heat,” while backpacking. The answer is of course “No.” One, the thought of dragging a heavy weapon into the mountains of Colorado seems redundant, since I have a three-inch trout knife and two backpacking poles.  Two, most of the “bad guys” prefer urban settings with Taco Bell’s, which are far more lucrative than remote campsites. Three, Kim took karate when she was 10, so I am confident that she will be able to deal with any of the amateur criminals we may encounter along our trip.

Nevertheless, I have noticed that we are backpacking dangerously close to the federal penitentiary known as Super Max. If you are not aware of this facility, it was designed to confine the worst criminals in the United States, including Eric Rudolph (Olympic Bomber), James Marcello (Chicago mob boss), Zacarias Moussaoui (9/11 mastermind), and Michael Swango (serial killer).  It is often referred to affectionately as the Alcatraz of the Rockies. Yes, Super Max is designed to prevent inmates from escaping, but we do not have to look back far in the Colorado annuals to be reminded that serial killer Ted Bundy escaped twice from the Garfield County Jail in Aspen; therefore, if we do have a chance encounter with an escapee such as Richard Reid (the shoe-bomber), I better sharpen my trout knife, hide my boots, and let Kim bust-out her Tsuki Waza. 

                                                                                                                                                             

Weather

                Both Kim and I have back-packed up Mount Washington, in New Hampshire, so we are used to extreme weather patterns; nevertheless, Colorado will certainly offer us a buffet of new weather patterns and events that we have not seen before. Our biggest concern will be the super-sonic thunderstorms that ravage the landscape every day about 1:24 pm MST. Colorado ranks fifth in lighting deaths, so we will have to be sure to get down to safe altitudes long before the thunder begins to roll. Unfortunately, lightning strikes travel differently in Colorado than in other states.  If we were hiking in Kansas, the lightning would simply strike the ground and that would be that; unfortunately, a lightning strike in Colorado can travel through the entire side of a mountain before it reaches its final destination, so if Kim and I are in contact with any part of a rock on that mountain, we may be the recipient of 100,000 + volts. It only takes 30+ volts to kill a human, so this could be quite problematic for our future blog posts. In 1999, a herd of elk found this out the hard way, as a single bolt of lightning traveled through a large plateau of granite, killing 56 of them on Mt. Evans.                

                                  

Even though the thunderstorms will be quite menacing at times, Kim and I will need to be more on guard for the Black Swan events, such as summer blizzards, microbursts, and the exquisite mountain tornado. Yes, even though tornados have been told to stay on the eastern plains of Colorado, every-once in a while, one gets curious and decides to take a whirl on a distant mountain-top. In 2012, a small tornado on Mt. Evans touched-down at nearly 12,000 feet above sea level. The dark funnel did not inspire the same awe and fear displayed in the movie twister; in fact most witnesses described it as “cute” and “cool.” Still, I don't want to be trying to run-away from a tornado two-and-a-half-miles above sea level. I will pass out and be carried away like Elijah in a whirlwind.  Plus, my Colorado Trail guide does not mention anything about tornado shelters on the trail. Perhaps, this is a mere oversight?

                                                                                 Bad Trail Magic

On the Appalachian Trail, backpackers are often presented with small gifts from local residents. These gifts are often left anonymously along the trailside and include fresh fruit, snacks, beer, sodas, and even money. I was fortunate enough to have one couple put-me-up in a hotel for a night and buy me dinner at an Italian restaurant. The other hikers were very jealous. We have been told that there may be some trail magic on the Colorado Trail as well, but I am fearful that this trail magic may be our ultimate undoing.   

On November 6, 2012, Colorado residents voted to legalize recreational marijuana use. While Kim and I have seen no direct evidence of this mandate, we may be subject to some interesting baked goods along the trail. While I would like to think that I could resist a “special brownie” in the wilderness, my extreme hunger may lead me to become an unwilling victim of Amendment 64. Even worse, one of the unruly ungulates may a take a few bites as well, leading to even more hoofs, more antlers, and more grunts….This trip is going to be hard enough without having to worry about a half-baked moose chasing Kim and I down the trail! Also, it is important to note, that more people in Colorado have died in the past year as a result of pot edibles than of rattlesnake bites in the past 100 years. I just wanted you to know…

Cannibalism 

I hate to bring up the “c-word” before this trip has even started, but there is a small possibility that Kim and I will have to eat each other or someone else before we reach Durango. Now, of course we both hope this does not happen. It would be a total “buzzkill,” and I am sure the survivor would not be invited to next year’s Thanksgiving celebration. Still, let it be known that we both awkwardly agreed not to eat each other if times get tough. Still… I have to admit that I am slightly worried because we have nothing in writing. Nothing….

I only bring-up the topic of cannibalism because we will be staying in the same town (Lake City) where the notorious Alfred Packer was tried for cannibalizing five of his companions way back in 1873. Now, if you live out of state and have not heard the tale of Alfred Packer, do not be alarmed, but every true resident of Colorado can tell you this grizzly story because it has been mandated for years in core curriculum for third grade. It is a right of passage and probably the most unusual Black Swan event imaginable.

Overall, I think we should have a very good trip. I do not anticipate having to run from tornados, hide from moose, or consider eating anything but Mountain House dinners. If a Black Swan event does hit us, we will pray that it is minimal and worthy of a great story when we get back.